Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.84 – 357.29

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

577 – 623

Prediction missed · off by 190.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 772.9 ±8.7

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 146.13Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 136.81Rank 55Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 178.9Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739.1 ±11.9

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 109.41Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 181.21Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 66.67Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 401, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 494, 401, 8513

Auto

86.0 19%

Teleop

220.3 49%

Endgame

140.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1986, 1296, 7287

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1986, 1296, 7287

Auto

122.9 35%

Teleop

174.6 49%

Endgame

56.3 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score461.8pts

Blue projected score357.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.5
Score range: 278–541
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1200 vs event baseline 437.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

772.9Season APEX739.1

86Auto122.9

220.3Teleop174.6

140.9Endgame56.3

106Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	115
teleop	344	327
endgame	123	176
foul	0	5
total	577	623

Result

Final score

577 – 623

Prediction missed · off by 190.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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