Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

506.86 – 494.88

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

576 – 593

Prediction missed · off by 83.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 779.2 ±9.3

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 185.44Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 216.19Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 105.23Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 824.6 ±9.3

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 242.17Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 90.77Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 161.94Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6517, 5000, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 6517, 5000, 910

Auto

112.3 22%

Teleop

293.4 58%

Endgame

104.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9785, 2383, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

494.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9785, 2383, 3512

Auto

40.6 9%

Teleop

310.3 66%

Endgame

120.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score506.9pts

Blue projected score494.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12
Score range: 417–585
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1169 vs event baseline 435.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

779.2Season APEX824.6

112.3Auto40.6

293.4Teleop310.3

104.5Endgame120.5

186Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	80
teleop	313	330
endgame	123	183
foul	0	0
total	576	593

Result

Final score

576 – 593

Prediction missed · off by 83.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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