Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

474.89 – 445.66

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

425 – 434

Prediction missed · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 681.6 ±9.8

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 257.66Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 127.25Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 89.98Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 756.2 ±9.3

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 150.15Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 98.42Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 197.09Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 2220, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

474.9 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 581, 2220, 2834

Auto

93.1 20%

Teleop

248.1 52%

Endgame

133.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 1625, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.7 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4201, 1625, 1701

Auto

18.7 4%

Teleop

253.4 58%

Endgame

167.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score474.9pts

Blue projected score445.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.2
Score range: 368–553
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 859 vs event baseline 435.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

681.6Season APEX756.2

93.1Auto18.7

248.1Teleop253.4

133.7Endgame167.2

124Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	114
teleop	185	239
endgame	126	81
foul	5	0
total	425	434

Result

Final score

425 – 434

Prediction missed · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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