Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

404.92 – 460.22

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 390

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.5 ±9.3

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 184.41Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 31.64Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 188.87Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.2 ±9.8

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 117.77Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 146.71Rank 53Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 195.74Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 4191, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3015, 4191, 6328

Auto

102.5 26%

Teleop

219.2 55%

Endgame

79.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 3297, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5454, 3297, 5406

Auto

96.9 21%

Teleop

283.2 61%

Endgame

82.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score404.9pts

Blue projected score460.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.3
Score range: 327–538
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 801 vs event baseline 436.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.5Season APEX691.2

102.5Auto96.9

219.2Teleop283.2

79.6Endgame82.6

109Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	100
teleop	220	185
endgame	98	90
foul	0	15
total	411	390

Result

Final score

411 – 390

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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