Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

403.19 – 442.89

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

417 – 547

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.7 ±8.1

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 150.08Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 39.89Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 213.22Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 859.4 ±10.7

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 242.87Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 133.86Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 66.16Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 2199, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.2 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 573, 2199, 503

Auto

49.2 12%

Teleop

253.1 62%

Endgame

105.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 4613, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8044, 4613, 3175

Auto

71.2 16%

Teleop

247.0 56%

Endgame

122.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score403.2pts

Blue projected score442.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.7
Score range: 325–521
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 964 vs event baseline 435.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.7Season APEX859.4

49.2Auto71.2

253.1Teleop247

105.8Endgame122.2

108Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	115
teleop	187	252
endgame	134	170
foul	5	10
total	417	547

Result

Final score

417 – 547

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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