Qualification · Qualification 93
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
389.88 – 249.15
85%15%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
422 – 377
Prediction correct · off by 80 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 795.4 ±11.2
Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 131.28Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 160.58Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 98.02Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.7 ±8.7
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 116.51Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 12.99Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 119.65Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11118, 4174, 2102
64
/ 100 compatProjected
389.9 pts
~2.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 11118, 4174, 2102
Auto
62.8 16%
Teleop
237.4 62%
Endgame
83.4 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5086, 7451, 2659
47
/ 100 compatProjected
249.2 pts
~1.1 RP (championship)
Teams: 5086, 7451, 2659
Auto
51.9 21%
Teleop
157.0 64%
Endgame
35.2 14%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score389.9pts
Blue projected score249.2pts
Red win probability85%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 140.7
- Score range
- 171–468
- Upset likelihood
- 15%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
795.4Season APEX683.7
62.8Auto51.9
237.4Teleop157
83.4Endgame35.2
184Consistency131
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 47 | 53 |
| teleop | 219 | 221 |
| endgame | 156 | 98 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 422 | 377 |
Result
Final score
422 – 377
Prediction correct · off by 80 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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