Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

624.88 – 520.7

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

630 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 82.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 941.3 ±9.3

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 161.21Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 249.1Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 214.57Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 719 ±8.7

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 194.44Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 90.1Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 236.16Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1710, 6329, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

624.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1710, 6329, 4698

Auto

178.3 29%

Teleop

337.6 55%

Endgame

100.1 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 1259, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.7 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11270, 1259, 3641

Auto

84.0 16%

Teleop

272.0 53%

Endgame

161.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score624.9pts

Blue projected score520.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.2
Score range: 443–703
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 991 vs event baseline 435.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

941.3Season APEX719

178.3Auto84

337.6Teleop272

100.1Endgame161.6

66Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	75
teleop	347	142
endgame	99	139
foul	40	5
total	630	361

Result

Final score

630 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 82.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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