Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.09 – 175.36

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

263 – 391

Prediction missed · off by 141.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.7 ±9.3

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 121.81Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 55.07Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 153.21Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.1 ±9.8

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 39.45Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 72.66Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 63.25Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1986, 11024, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1986, 11024, 761

Auto

94.4 29%

Teleop

158.8 50%

Endgame

67.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9449, 6121, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 9449, 6121, 2383

Auto

47.8 29%

Teleop

71.1 43%

Endgame

46.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score330.1pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.7
Score range: 97–408
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 436.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.7Season APEX618.1

94.4Auto47.8

158.8Teleop71.1

67.2Endgame46.9

150Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	75
teleop	159	194
endgame	25	122
foul	0	0
total	263	391

Result

Final score

263 – 391

Prediction missed · off by 141.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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