Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

471.39 – 258.21

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

638 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 98.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 810.2 ±9.3

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 221.32Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 88.31Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 161.76Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.8 ±9.3

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 98.75Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 150.51Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 8.95Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 2834, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.4 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 8044, 2834, 6328

Auto

118.8 25%

Teleop

243.4 51%

Endgame

111.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 8267, 7451

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.2 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2102, 8267, 7451

Auto

31.2 12%

Teleop

147.1 56%

Endgame

83.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score471.4pts

Blue projected score258.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.2
Score range: 180–549
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 926 vs event baseline 433.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

810.2Season APEX601.8

118.8Auto31.2

243.4Teleop147.1

111.6Endgame83.4

181Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	165	68
teleop	341	191
endgame	127	24
foul	5	5
total	638	288

Result

Final score

638 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 98.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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