Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

331.39 – 525.35

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 435

Prediction missed · off by 101 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.2 ±9.8

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 98.58Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 98.99Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 133.82Rank 53Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 877.8 ±8.7

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 174.79Rank 70Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 217.54Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 133.02Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 2486, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2486, 3297

Auto

54.7 17%

Teleop

177.9 56%

Endgame

83.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6152, 1701, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

525.4 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6152, 1701, 2659

Auto

66.7 13%

Teleop

356.5 69%

Endgame

92.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score331.4pts

Blue projected score525.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194
Score range: 253–603
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 433.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.2Season APEX877.8

54.7Auto66.7

177.9Teleop356.5

83.7Endgame92.3

114Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	86
teleop	240	250
endgame	152	89
foul	0	10
total	443	435

Result

Final score

443 – 435

Prediction missed · off by 101 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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