Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

437.72 – 281.67

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

506 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 101.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±10.4

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 51.9Rank 60Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 300.05Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 85.77Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680 ±11.9

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 32.57Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 178.44Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 70.66Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5348, 1706, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.7 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5348, 1706, 1625

Auto

38.0 9%

Teleop

297.9 68%

Endgame

105.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 6517, 7287

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.7 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3175, 6517, 7287

Auto

78.2 29%

Teleop

112.6 42%

Endgame

78.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score437.7pts

Blue projected score281.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.1
Score range: 204–516
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 922 vs event baseline 432.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX680

38Auto78.2

297.9Teleop112.6

105.4Endgame78.3

129Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	111
teleop	267	276
endgame	177	24
foul	0	5
total	506	416

Result

Final score

506 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 101.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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