Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.43 – 491.42

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

218 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 156.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±8.7

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 25.88Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 179.07Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 133.48Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 746.7 ±9.3

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 72.05Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 276.73Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 142.64Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 573, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 540, 573, 910

Auto

64.2 19%

Teleop

163.4 48%

Endgame

116.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4191, 6329, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.4 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4191, 6329, 3035

Auto

91.8 19%

Teleop

261.9 53%

Endgame

136.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score338.4pts

Blue projected score491.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153
Score range: 260–569
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 435.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.1Season APEX746.7

64.2Auto91.8

163.4Teleop261.9

116.1Endgame136.9

152Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	91
teleop	139	181
endgame	12	27
foul	5	0
total	218	299

Result

Final score

218 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 156.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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