Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

587.7 – 431.39

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

669 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 836 ±8.1

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 208.59Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 136.23Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 242.88Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.7 ±9.9

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 187.55Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 39.69Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 204.15Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4698, 8005, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

587.7 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4698, 8005, 3467

Auto

106.0 18%

Teleop

320.9 56%

Endgame

150.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 10907, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1296, 10907, 8749

Auto

110.9 26%

Teleop

200.7 47%

Endgame

118.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.74 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score587.7pts

Blue projected score431.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.3
Score range: 353–666
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1123 vs event baseline 433.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

836Season APEX725.7

106Auto110.9

320.9Teleop200.7

150.8Endgame118.2

184Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	124
teleop	397	259
endgame	122	71
foul	20	0
total	669	454

Result

Final score

669 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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