Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

525 – 301.43

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

547 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 903.2 ±11.2

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 229.82Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 155.76Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 139.42Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.2 ±8.7

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 148.6Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 40.49Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 112.34Rank 55Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 10131, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

525 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9785, 10131, 4613

Auto

51.4 10%

Teleop

336.6 66%

Endgame

124.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 188, 11024, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 188, 11024, 401

Auto

57.5 19%

Teleop

163.5 54%

Endgame

79.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.96 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score525pts

Blue projected score301.4pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.6
Score range: 223–603
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 962 vs event baseline 432.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

903.2Season APEX577.2

51.4Auto57.5

336.6Teleop163.5

124.4Endgame79.4

143Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	50
teleop	337	219
endgame	94	146
foul	0	0
total	547	415

Result

Final score

547 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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