Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.63 – 311.16

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

444 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 215.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.8 ±11.2

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 141.2Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 111.41Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6200PrepaTec - XRAMS

Season APEX 170.1Event APEX -41.98Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 674.3 ±8.7

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 59.23Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 12.28Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 239.65Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9692, 761, 6200

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9692, 761, 6200

Auto

51.9 27%

Teleop

87.5 45%

Endgame

53.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1259, 2199, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.2 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1259, 2199, 1732

Auto

60.1 20%

Teleop

158.7 52%

Endgame

87.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score210.6pts

Blue projected score311.2pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.5
Score range: 133–389
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 953 vs event baseline 432.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.8Season APEX674.3

51.9Auto60.1

87.5Teleop158.7

53.1Endgame87.9

156Consistency193

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	73
teleop	262	303
endgame	117	133
foul	0	0
total	444	509

Result

Final score

444 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 215.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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