Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

530.28 – 471.33

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

452 – 550

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 876.9 ±11.2

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 56.47Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 134.45Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 339.36Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 804.8 ±10.7

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 86.59Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 198.24Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 186.5Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9449, 11118, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

530.3 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 9449, 11118, 2056

Auto

124.6 24%

Teleop

302.4 59%

Endgame

88.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 8214, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.3 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2607, 8214, 11270

Auto

110.3 24%

Teleop

240.9 53%

Endgame

100.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score530.3pts

Blue projected score471.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 393–608
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1002 vs event baseline 431.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

876.9Season APEX804.8

124.6Auto110.3

302.4Teleop240.9

88.8Endgame100.5

147Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	147
teleop	240	302
endgame	84	101
foul	10	0
total	452	550

Result

Final score

452 – 550

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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