Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.42 – 399.05

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

448 – 506

Prediction missed · off by 66.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 786.1 ±8.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 58.57Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 179.86Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 182.99Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 799.2 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 179.61Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 112.91Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 106.53Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 3512, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.4 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6121, 3512, 3015

Auto

78.3 19%

Teleop

239.3 57%

Endgame

101.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 11493, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

399 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 238, 11493, 4143

Auto

66.3 18%

Teleop

216.7 58%

Endgame

90.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score421.4pts

Blue projected score399pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.4
Score range: 321–499
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 954 vs event baseline 430.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

786.1Season APEX799.2

78.3Auto66.3

239.3Teleop216.7

101.5Endgame90.8

120Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	99
teleop	287	306
endgame	80	101
foul	45	0
total	448	506

Result

Final score

448 – 506

Prediction missed · off by 66.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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