Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

589.76 – 396.95

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

691 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.4 ±9.3

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 217.31Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 194.57Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 177.88Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.1 ±9.3

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 130.16Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 121.86Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 144.93Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 5406, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

589.8 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3641, 5406, 1710

Auto

110.2 19%

Teleop

340.2 57%

Endgame

142.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5086, 3539, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

397 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5086, 3539, 2220

Auto

65.6 17%

Teleop

188.4 49%

Endgame

128.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.94 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score589.8pts

Blue projected score397pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.8
Score range: 320–667
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1058 vs event baseline 429.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.4Season APEX652.1

110.2Auto65.6

340.2Teleop188.4

142Endgame128.1

106Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	151	78
teleop	393	195
endgame	147	89
foul	0	5
total	691	367

Result

Final score

691 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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