Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

350.16 – 621.17

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 625

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.2 ±9.8

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 107.59Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 120.85Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 121.72Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 850.5 ±8.8

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 163.96Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 179.79Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 277.42Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 2102, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2486, 2102, 5454

Auto

64.7 18%

Teleop

207.7 58%

Endgame

84.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8267, 503, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

621.2 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 8267, 503, 6329

Auto

111.2 18%

Teleop

344.1 55%

Endgame

174.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score350.2pts

Blue projected score621.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -271
Score range: 273–698
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 858 vs event baseline 427.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.2Season APEX850.5

64.7Auto111.2

207.7Teleop344.1

84.8Endgame174.2

97Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	131
teleop	131	381
endgame	62	98
foul	0	15
total	233	625

Result

Final score

233 – 625

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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