Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

385.65 – 387.4

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

357 – 422

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.8 ±9.8

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 84.83Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 136.3Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 164.52Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.1 ±10.5

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 135.69Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 175.55Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 76.16Rank 48Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1625, 3035, 1986

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1625, 3035, 1986

Auto

76.8 20%

Teleop

212.1 54%

Endgame

104.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8005, 4174, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 8005, 4174, 1014

Auto

67.9 18%

Teleop

199.8 52%

Endgame

112.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score385.7pts

Blue projected score387.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.7
Score range: 306–467
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 779 vs event baseline 443.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

706.8Season APEX652.1

76.8Auto67.9

212.1Teleop199.8

104.6Endgame112.9

138Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	110
teleop	172	209
endgame	90	88
foul	0	15
total	357	422

Result

Final score

357 – 422

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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