Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

555.96 – 614.92

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

400 – 552

Prediction correct · off by 109.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±9.3

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 172.79Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 167.95Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 215.22Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 829.8 ±9.3

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 345.11Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 159.97Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 109.84Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8513, 9692, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

556 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 8513, 9692, 1296

Auto

118.9 22%

Teleop

277.0 50%

Endgame

156.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2056, 188, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

614.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2056, 188, 1787

Auto

117.7 20%

Teleop

372.0 62%

Endgame

110.6 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.76 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score556pts

Blue projected score614.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59
Score range: 479–692
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 952 vs event baseline 425.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741Season APEX829.8

118.9Auto117.7

277Teleop372

156.6Endgame110.6

182Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	175
teleop	137	291
endgame	136	86
foul	20	0
total	400	552

Result

Final score

400 – 552

Prediction correct · off by 109.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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