Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

473.18 – 335.82

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 140 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 827.5 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 194.29Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 165.5Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 113.39Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.7 ±8.7

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 46.03Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 219.27Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 70.52Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 2659, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

473.2 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6328, 2659, 11493

Auto

125.8 27%

Teleop

251.5 54%

Endgame

86.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2199, 11270, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.8 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2199, 11270, 540

Auto

71.9 22%

Teleop

157.9 48%

Endgame

99.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score473.2pts

Blue projected score335.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.4
Score range: 259–550
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 427.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

827.5Season APEX661.7

125.8Auto71.9

251.5Teleop157.9

86.8Endgame99.5

112Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	35
teleop	243	73
endgame	63	51
foul	0	0
total	370	159

Result

Final score

370 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 140 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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