Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.8 – 358.08

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

409 – 442

Prediction missed · off by 100.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.7 ±11.2

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 75.54Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 231.52Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 219.74Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.7 ±10.7

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 190.82Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 232.15Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6200PrepaTec - XRAMS

Season APEX 170.1Event APEX -64.89Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2383, 3641, 8214

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2383, 3641, 8214

Auto

141.2 27%

Teleop

283.4 54%

Endgame

104.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5406, 9785, 6200

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.1 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5406, 9785, 6200

Auto

33.8 10%

Teleop

216.0 64%

Endgame

89.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.74 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score526.8pts

Blue projected score358.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.7
Score range: 281–604
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 851 vs event baseline 429.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

837.7Season APEX780.7

141.2Auto33.8

283.4Teleop216

104.6Endgame89

135Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	79
teleop	184	339
endgame	141	9
foul	15	15
total	409	442

Result

Final score

409 – 442

Prediction missed · off by 100.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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