Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

459.03 – 399.03

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

434 – 526

Prediction missed · off by 76 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±8.7

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 170.89Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 207.68Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 80.46Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 853.4 ±11.7

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 156.31Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 128.31Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 114.41Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 3512, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

459 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 494, 3512, 6639

Auto

55.9 12%

Teleop

327.1 68%

Endgame

97.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1710, 10131, 11118

/ 100 compat

Projected

399 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1710, 10131, 11118

Auto

91.3 24%

Teleop

224.2 60%

Endgame

61.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score459pts

Blue projected score399pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60
Score range: 321–537
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 960 vs event baseline 430.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.8Season APEX853.4

55.9Auto91.3

327.1Teleop224.2

97.8Endgame61.1

73Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	93
teleop	204	329
endgame	152	104
foul	5	0
total	434	526

Result

Final score

434 – 526

Prediction missed · off by 76 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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