Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

607.31 – 506.04

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

599 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 122.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 870.1 ±8.7

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 194.82Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 207.8Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 204.69Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 748.5 ±10.7

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 195.23Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 161.74Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 149.07Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 238, 8749, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

607.3 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 238, 8749, 1701

Auto

76.7 13%

Teleop

343.2 59%

Endgame

160.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4613, 5086, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

506 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4613, 5086, 761

Auto

82.6 17%

Teleop

256.0 53%

Endgame

147.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score607.3pts

Blue projected score506pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.3
Score range: 428–685
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 869 vs event baseline 430.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

870.1Season APEX748.5

76.7Auto82.6

343.2Teleop256

160.3Endgame147.6

148Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	43
teleop	370	155
endgame	110	72
foul	15	0
total	599	270

Result

Final score

599 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 122.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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