Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

433.11 – 534.86

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

636 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 148.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 782.8 ±8.8

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 193.71Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 211Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 28.4Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 855 ±9.3

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 199.64Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 127.75Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 207.47Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 3467, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.1 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1732, 3467, 9449

Auto

88.0 20%

Teleop

233.2 54%

Endgame

110.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 1625, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

534.9 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8044, 1625, 3015

Auto

84.5 16%

Teleop

328.1 60%

Endgame

130.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score433.1pts

Blue projected score534.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.7
Score range: 356–612
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1077 vs event baseline 429.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

782.8Season APEX855

88Auto84.5

233.2Teleop328.1

110.7Endgame130.1

161Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	27
teleop	339	228
endgame	179	186
foul	5	0
total	636	441

Result

Final score

636 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 148.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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