Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.64 – 398.86

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.3 ±9.8

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 115.82Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 118.27Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 219.55Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 634.2 ±9.8

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 189.17Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 136.64Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 73.05Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11493, 5454, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 11493, 5454, 11270

Auto

114.1 26%

Teleop

263.8 59%

Endgame

66.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9692, 1986, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9692, 1986, 3506

Auto

92.4 23%

Teleop

239.8 60%

Endgame

70.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score453.6pts

Blue projected score398.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.8
Score range: 322–531
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 428.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.3Season APEX634.2

114.1Auto92.4

263.8Teleop239.8

66.8Endgame70.4

39Consistency196

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	87
teleop	220	216
endgame	125	122
foul	5	10
total	440	435

Result

Final score

440 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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