Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

302.5 – 722.96

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

338 – 653

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.2 ±9.3

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 68.24Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 3.6Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 230.66Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 984.7 ±8.7

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 144.46Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 340.02Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 238.48Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4191, 3175, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.5 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4191, 3175, 3641

Auto

28.9 10%

Teleop

178.3 59%

Endgame

93.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 2056, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

723 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2102, 2056, 581

Auto

160.2 22%

Teleop

421.0 57%

Endgame

152.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score302.5pts

Blue projected score723pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -420.5
Score range: 226–800
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 991 vs event baseline 427.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.2Season APEX984.7

28.9Auto160.2

178.3Teleop421

93.6Endgame152.5

141Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	155
teleop	125	348
endgame	153	150
foul	0	0
total	338	653

Result

Final score

338 – 653

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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