Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.21 – 286.95

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 96.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 674.8 ±8.7

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 49.98Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 108.04Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 239.19Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.2 ±11.1

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 189.08Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 22.84Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 75.03Rank 48Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1287, 1259, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1287, 1259, 9785

Auto

39.1 10%

Teleop

232.3 58%

Endgame

129.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 10907, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

287 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6328, 10907, 1014

Auto

64.9 22%

Teleop

154.4 52%

Endgame

77.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score397.2pts

Blue projected score287pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.3
Score range: 210–474
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 429.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

674.8Season APEX677.2

39.1Auto64.9

232.3Teleop154.4

129.2Endgame77.2

198Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	108
teleop	125	127
endgame	4	82
foul	60	15
total	249	332

Result

Final score

249 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 96.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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