Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.44 – 566.31

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 634

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.2 ±10.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 11.03Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6200PrepaTec - XRAMS

Season APEX 170.1Event APEX -58.15Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 167.56Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.2 ±8.7

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 194.56Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 189.93Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 181.82Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 6200, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 11024, 6200, 494

Auto

19.2 16%

Teleop

38.8 31%

Endgame

65.2 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 3015, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

566.3 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 8749, 3015, 573

Auto

84.7 15%

Teleop

300.1 54%

Endgame

174.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.69 · Blue 3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score120.4pts

Blue projected score566.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -445.9
Score range: 42–644
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 770 vs event baseline 432.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.2Season APEX794.2

19.2Auto84.7

38.8Teleop300.1

65.2Endgame174.9

116Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	137
teleop	81	357
endgame	32	140
foul	0	0
total	136	634

Result

Final score

136 – 634

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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