Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

404.27 – 433.38

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

615 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 732.4 ±8.1

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 83.56Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 181.66Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 139.05Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 737.7 ±8.7

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 96.71Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 224.88Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 111.79Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 3512, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 503, 3512, 5086

Auto

66.9 17%

Teleop

263.7 66%

Endgame

66.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 4698, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.4 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2607, 4698, 3035

Auto

90.6 22%

Teleop

209.8 50%

Endgame

120.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.82 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score404.3pts

Blue projected score433.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.1
Score range: 327–510
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1070 vs event baseline 430.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

732.4Season APEX737.7

66.9Auto90.6

263.7Teleop209.8

66.1Endgame120

147Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	83
teleop	324	241
endgame	183	126
foul	0	5
total	615	455

Result

Final score

615 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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