Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

376.33 – 488.07

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 396

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 761.6 ±8.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 110.48Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 211.54Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 54.31Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 862.4 ±10.2

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 142.54Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 115.17Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 230.36Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 1701, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.3 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6121, 1701, 3539

Auto

87.0 24%

Teleop

208.6 58%

Endgame

67.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 188, 11118, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

488.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 188, 11118, 3467

Auto

65.8 14%

Teleop

290.0 60%

Endgame

126.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score376.3pts

Blue projected score488.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.7
Score range: 293–571
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 807 vs event baseline 461.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

761.6Season APEX862.4

87Auto65.8

208.6Teleop290

67Endgame126.6

138Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	36
teleop	227	287
endgame	68	73
foul	30	0
total	411	396

Result

Final score

411 – 396

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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