Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.32 – 644.55

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

381 – 721

Prediction correct · off by 114.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 646.7 ±9.8

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 32.15Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 27.56Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 168.61Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 855.8 ±8.7

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 223.87Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 205.43Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 215.25Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2834, 3506, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2834, 3506, 4143

Auto

81.8 37%

Teleop

117.7 54%

Endgame

19.7 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9785, 3641, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

644.6 pts

~3.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9785, 3641, 1296

Auto

55.1 9%

Teleop

397.2 62%

Endgame

189.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.74 · Blue 3.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score228.3pts

Blue projected score644.6pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -416.2
Score range: 152–721
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1102 vs event baseline 424.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

646.7Season APEX855.8

81.8Auto55.1

117.7Teleop397.2

19.7Endgame189.7

199Consistency248

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	119
teleop	173	389
endgame	128	213
foul	5	0
total	381	721

Result

Final score

381 – 721

Prediction correct · off by 114.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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