Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.03 – 316

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

383 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 153 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.6 ±9.3

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 81.65Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 91.63Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX -2.25Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.4 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 179.69Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 36Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 100.31Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1986, 188, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

171 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1986, 188, 3175

Auto

38.7 23%

Teleop

137.2 81%

Endgame

-7.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 1287, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

316 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6328, 1287, 2220

Auto

90.7 29%

Teleop

180.5 57%

Endgame

42.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score171pts

Blue projected score316pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145
Score range: 94–393
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 793 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.6Season APEX618.4

38.7Auto90.7

137.2Teleop180.5

-7.5Endgame42.8

186Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	122
teleop	194	164
endgame	104	124
foul	0	0
total	383	410

Result

Final score

383 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 153 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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