Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

508.74 – 380.54

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

446 – 591

Prediction missed · off by 136.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 775.4 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 220.26Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 162.14Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 126.34Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 886.5 ±8.8

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 183.53Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 154.91Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 42.1Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 6517, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 11270, 6517, 10131

Auto

66.8 13%

Teleop

319.2 64%

Endgame

112.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3467, 8513, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.5 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3467, 8513, 2486

Auto

62.1 17%

Teleop

179.5 50%

Endgame

119.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score508.7pts

Blue projected score380.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.2
Score range: 305–585
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1037 vs event baseline 423.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

775.4Season APEX886.5

66.8Auto62.1

319.2Teleop179.5

112.7Endgame119.5

132Consistency200

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	103
teleop	229	316
endgame	112	157
foul	5	15
total	446	591

Result

Final score

446 – 591

Prediction missed · off by 136.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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