Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.44 – 209.2

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

474 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 212.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.1 ±8.7

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 34.23Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 104.19Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 97.02Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549 ±9.3

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 81.24Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 69.15Rank 55Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 58.81Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6639, 238, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6639, 238, 1259

Auto

30.6 15%

Teleop

100.8 49%

Endgame

75.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 401, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2102, 401, 4191

Auto

23.7 11%

Teleop

122.7 55%

Endgame

75.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score235.4pts

Blue projected score209.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 133–311
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 869 vs event baseline 423.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.1Season APEX549

30.6Auto23.7

100.8Teleop122.7

75.4Endgame75.5

165Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	57
teleop	300	222
endgame	105	111
foul	0	5
total	474	395

Result

Final score

474 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 212.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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