Qualification · Qualification 44
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
407.34 – 375.86
60%40%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
635 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 197.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 791.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 159.1Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.4Event APEX -17.09Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 265.33Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.1 ±11
Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 61.96Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 118.82Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 195.08Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3015, 11024, 1706
66
/ 100 compatProjected
407.3 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 3015, 11024, 1706
Auto
78.5 20%
Teleop
230.0 57%
Endgame
92.3 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10907, 1787, 1710
59
/ 100 compatProjected
375.9 pts
~1.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 10907, 1787, 1710
Auto
108.5 29%
Teleop
198.7 53%
Endgame
65.4 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2 · Blue 1.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score407.3pts
Blue projected score375.9pts
Red win probability60%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 29%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 31.5
- Score range
- 300–483
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
791.5Season APEX668.1
78.5Auto108.5
230Teleop198.7
92.3Endgame65.4
120Consistency51
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 97 | 65 |
| teleop | 364 | 76 |
| endgame | 174 | 53 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 635 | 209 |
Result
Final score
635 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 197.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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