Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.17 – 323.99

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 150.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 555.5 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 90.23Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 200.77Rank 53Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 36.17Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.1 ±9.3

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 199.64Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 77.53Rank 60Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 46.82Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 3297, 7451

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.2 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 540, 3297, 7451

Auto

82.9 27%

Teleop

159.5 51%

Endgame

67.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 5348, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

324 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4201, 5348, 2199

Auto

33.3 11%

Teleop

176.8 59%

Endgame

91.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score327.2pts

Blue projected score324pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.2
Score range: 248–403
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 424.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

555.5Season APEX626.1

82.9Auto33.3

159.5Teleop176.8

67.5Endgame91.9

187Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	16
teleop	45	161
endgame	3	61
foul	0	0
total	112	238

Result

Final score

112 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 150.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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