Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

553.59 – 180.1

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 860.6 ±8.7

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 118.76Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 258.2Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 176.63Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570 ±11.2

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 44.41Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 135.42Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6200PrepaTec - XRAMS

Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 0.27Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 8044, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

553.6 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 910, 8044, 238

Auto

98.0 18%

Teleop

297.5 55%

Endgame

142.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 5454, 6200

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 540, 5454, 6200

Auto

55.6 31%

Teleop

91.5 51%

Endgame

32.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 3.02 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score553.6pts

Blue projected score180.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 373.5
Score range: 97–637
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 461.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

860.6Season APEX570

98Auto55.6

297.5Teleop91.5

142.2Endgame32.2

160Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	40
teleop	250	67
endgame	90	36
foul	15	5
total	408	148

Result

Final score

408 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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