Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.08 – 168.08

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

516 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 779.2 ±11.2

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 150.41Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 74.43Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 141.24Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 659.5 ±12.4

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 110.14Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 53.34Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 4.6Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8749, 5454, 11118

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.1 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 8749, 5454, 11118

Auto

62.0 17%

Teleop

221.6 61%

Endgame

82.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1625, 7287, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1625, 7287, 2383

Auto

60.4 40%

Teleop

52.6 35%

Endgame

37.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.9 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score366.1pts

Blue projected score168.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 198
Score range: 92–442
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 819 vs event baseline 424.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

779.2Season APEX659.5

62Auto60.4

221.6Teleop52.6

82.5Endgame37

167Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	58
teleop	278	164
endgame	97	81
foul	0	0
total	516	303

Result

Final score

516 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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