Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.11 – 297.28

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

422 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 268.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.9 ±8.8

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX -24.59Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX -30.19Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 139.89Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 724.3 ±8.8

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 132.76Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 85.83Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 78.69Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 4191, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 4191, 3467

Auto

7.6 8%

Teleop

70.4 77%

Endgame

13.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4143, 503, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.3 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4143, 503, 188

Auto

100.1 33%

Teleop

163.8 54%

Endgame

39.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score297.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -212.2
Score range: 10–372
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 919 vs event baseline 416.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.9Season APEX724.3

7.6Auto100.1

70.4Teleop163.8

13Endgame39

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	95
teleop	238	327
endgame	131	75
foul	15	0
total	422	497

Result

Final score

422 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 268.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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