Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

515.84 – 329.18

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

532 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.9 ±8.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 108.5Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 162.68Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 244.66Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706.6 ±9.3

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 98.44Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 154.4Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 76.34Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 8005, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

515.8 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 761, 8005, 9785

Auto

95.2 19%

Teleop

242.2 47%

Endgame

175.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1287, 3015, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.2 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1287, 3015, 2486

Auto

90.8 28%

Teleop

196.6 61%

Endgame

34.9 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score515.8pts

Blue projected score329.2pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.7
Score range: 255–590
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 408.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.9Season APEX706.6

95.2Auto90.8

242.2Teleop196.6

175.9Endgame34.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	24
teleop	341	179
endgame	129	90
foul	35	5
total	532	298

Result

Final score

532 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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