Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

428.68 – 470.93

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

456 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 731.4 ±9.8

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 117.62Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 173.06Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 138Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 810.6 ±9.3

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 122.06Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 190.5Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 158.37Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4174, 4201, 8267

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.7 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4174, 4201, 8267

Auto

59.4 14%

Teleop

207.8 49%

Endgame

154.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10131, 5000, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

470.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 10131, 5000, 573

Auto

84.2 18%

Teleop

256.6 56%

Endgame

121.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score428.7pts

Blue projected score470.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 356–544
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1014 vs event baseline 405.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

731.4Season APEX810.6

59.4Auto84.2

207.8Teleop256.6

154.4Endgame121

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	65
teleop	237	345
endgame	175	148
foul	5	0
total	456	558

Result

Final score

456 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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