Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.07 – 308.96

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.5 ±11.7

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 84.87Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 28.18Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 142.02Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 642 ±11.9

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 184.87Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 21.58Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 102.51Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10907, 7451, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.1 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 10907, 7451, 4613

Auto

51.6 21%

Teleop

147.6 60%

Endgame

48.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3512, 9449, 7287

/ 100 compat

Projected

309 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3512, 9449, 7287

Auto

84.5 29%

Teleop

139.1 47%

Endgame

70.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score255.1pts

Blue projected score309pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.9
Score range: 181–383
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 413.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.5Season APEX642

51.6Auto84.5

147.6Teleop139.1

48.1Endgame70.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	43
teleop	137	107
endgame	39	40
foul	5	0
total	228	190

Result

Final score

228 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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