Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.84 – 271.57

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

407 – 512

Prediction correct · off by 234.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.9 ±8.8

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 121.62Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 14.29Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 42.93Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 793.4 ±10.7

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 86.16Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 56.62Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 128.79Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9692, 1287, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 9692, 1287, 503

Auto

54.6 29%

Teleop

113.5 61%

Endgame

17.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 910, 11118

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1296, 910, 11118

Auto

54.9 20%

Teleop

186.0 68%

Endgame

34.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score178.8pts

Blue projected score271.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.7
Score range: 105–346
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 919 vs event baseline 408.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.9Season APEX793.4

54.6Auto54.9

113.5Teleop186

17.9Endgame34.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	73
teleop	242	284
endgame	79	155
foul	0	0
total	407	512

Result

Final score

407 – 512

Prediction correct · off by 234.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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