Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

287.26 – 363.09

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716 ±8.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 137.54Rank 55Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 117.05Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 32.67Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 767.9 ±9.3

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 98.36Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 164.43Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 100.3Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 6328, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 401, 6328, 3506

Auto

68.6 24%

Teleop

169.8 61%

Endgame

42.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8513, 573, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8513, 573, 4174

Auto

81.5 23%

Teleop

144.7 40%

Endgame

132.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score287.3pts

Blue projected score363.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.8
Score range: 213–437
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 690 vs event baseline 411.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716Season APEX767.9

68.6Auto81.5

169.8Teleop144.7

42.1Endgame132

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	104
teleop	139	194
endgame	36	82
foul	5	15
total	295	395

Result

Final score

295 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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