Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

218.03 – 106.19

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

499 – 378

Prediction correct · off by 276.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 859.3 ±8.1

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 2.28Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 72.26Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 143.49Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 738.7 ±10.7

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 20.8Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 51.02Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 34.37Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 3467, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2199, 3467, 5000

Auto

44.7 20%

Teleop

148.2 66%

Endgame

31.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8214, 3035, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 8214, 3035, 11024

Auto

62.6 62%

Teleop

42.8 42%

Endgame

-4.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score218pts

Blue projected score106.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.8
Score range: 32–292
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 877 vs event baseline 410.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

859.3Season APEX738.7

44.7Auto62.6

148.2Teleop42.8

31.8Endgame-4.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	98
teleop	259	167
endgame	150	113
foul	0	0
total	499	378

Result

Final score

499 – 378

Prediction correct · off by 276.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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