Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.31 – 365.85

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

584 – 480

Prediction missed · off by 241.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 813.7 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 92.17Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 85.34Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 37.8Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 770.1 ±9.3

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 136.29Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 121.12Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 108.44Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 494, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.3 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1732, 494, 4143

Auto

78.5 36%

Teleop

131.2 60%

Endgame

9.4 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 6517, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2102, 6517, 1701

Auto

64.1 18%

Teleop

193.0 54%

Endgame

100.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score215.3pts

Blue projected score365.8pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.5
Score range: 142–439
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1064 vs event baseline 405.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

813.7Season APEX770.1

78.5Auto64.1

131.2Teleop193

9.4Endgame100.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	142	27
teleop	306	335
endgame	136	118
foul	0	0
total	584	480

Result

Final score

584 – 480

Prediction missed · off by 241.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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