Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

701.66 – 343.24

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

672 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1024.7 ±8.7

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 229.05Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 313.98Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 158.63Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 674.7 ±9.3

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 73.43Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 182.88Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 86.93Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 2056, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

701.7 pts

~3.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5000, 2056, 2659

Auto

148.4 21%

Teleop

406.9 59%

Endgame

137.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2834, 3015, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.2 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2834, 3015, 1259

Auto

47.6 14%

Teleop

180.9 53%

Endgame

111.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 3.15 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score701.7pts

Blue projected score343.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 358.4
Score range: 260–785
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 988 vs event baseline 461.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1024.7Season APEX674.7

148.4Auto47.6

406.9Teleop180.9

137.9Endgame111.4

153Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	60
teleop	412	155
endgame	116	101
foul	0	0
total	672	316

Result

Final score

672 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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