Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.45 – 233.75

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

558 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 265.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 796.2 ±8.7

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 118.32Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 63.84Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 88.29Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 687.3 ±9.9

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 10.39Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 73.93Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 149.43Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 6639, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.5 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8044, 6639, 5406

Auto

64.9 24%

Teleop

153.7 57%

Endgame

49.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10907, 761, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10907, 761, 4698

Auto

75.6 32%

Teleop

123.4 53%

Endgame

35.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score270.5pts

Blue projected score233.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.7
Score range: 164–340
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1036 vs event baseline 390.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

796.2Season APEX687.3

64.9Auto75.6

153.7Teleop123.4

49.4Endgame35.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	100
teleop	336	233
endgame	118	135
foul	0	10
total	558	478

Result

Final score

558 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 265.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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